| H2-PV NOW 2006-02-19, 9:21 pm |
|
Feces-covered Troll emerging from the Nether Regions named J. Clarke
wrote:
> H2-PV NOW wrote:
>
>
> Yeah, it's less than a third of the "other functions" category in the
> Federal R&D budget. That's under 1% of the overall R&D budget. Ol'
> George sure is fanatical all right.
>
>
> Seems to me that I recall another solar advocate about 30 years ago placing
> a bunch of high hopes on a government promise. Turns out in the real world
> they never came closer than 2 orders of magnitude of what they were
> promising.
If you read the link, instead of deluding yourself with faulty
memories, no doubt illegal drug scrambled, you would have learned the
following...
http://H2-PV.US/PV/37140_157.pdf
DOE Solar Program Review Meeting 2004
DOE/GO-102005-2067
Page 300
A Vision for Crystalline Silicon Solar Cells
Richard M. Swanson
SunPower Corporation
430 Indio Way, Sunnyvale, CA 94085 USA, rswanson @sunpowercorp.com
ABSTRACT
This paper presents a vision for crystalline silicon photovoltaics that
details a possible set of technical, financial and political
requirements to enable its continued success. PV system prices have
been decreasing roughly 50% per decade. We will show how crystalline
silicon solar cells can continue this trend over the next decade, thus
becoming cost-competitive without subsidies in many distributed
grid-connected applications. Significantly, no "big breakthroughs"
are needed for this to happen. An evolutionary development of existing
silicon technology is shown to be all that is necessary, and indeed all
that is likely, over this period.
KEY POINTS MADE:
1. Introduction
Module prices have followed a classic experience curve in cost versus
cumulative volume. (Straight line on a log-log plot of price versus
cumulative volume.) The experience factor is 81%, meaning that module
prices reduce 19% for every doubling of cumulative volume. The
well-known historical trend showing this behavior for the period 1979
to 2002 is plotted in Fig. 1.
3. Cost Projections
It is interesting to compare the projected $1.00/W manufacturing cost
with the price projected by extending the historical experience curve.
This result is shown in Fig. 5, where it is assumed that the market
grows at 30% per year. A price of $1.56/W is obtained in 2012. This
seems like a reasonable result, and will make for an attractive
manufacturing scenario if the manufacturing cost reaches the projected
$1.00/W in 2012. A module price of $1.50/W, coupled with a system price
of twice that, or $3.00/W, should result in a cost-effective
grid-connected market in many locations without the need for subsidies.
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