| Author |
Get the bubble wrpa ready!
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| Froma friend in the energy industry:
I found this on a website at work:
> Weathermen put the UK on 'amber alert'
> The Met Office has put the UK energy industry on 'amber alert' for a
> colder than average winter.
>
> It has written to energy companies and many other contingency
> planners because, it says, "a prolonged, severe winter is one of the
> biggest
> threats to the efficient day-to-day running of the country".
>
> According to the weather experts, the long-range forecast signals a
> dry winter across much of the UK.
>
> Since 1995-96, winters in the UK have been mild, giving many the
> impression that mild winters are now the norm. Even an average winter
> could
> come as a surprise to many, says the Met Office, which is now based in
> Devon.
pk
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|
| Ah. Now down in Devon!! Back to the Seaweed routine eh?
If they are unable to forecast with much accuracy a month ahead, how can
they all of a sudden predict a bad winter? Wait and watch by next Spring you
will know the answer, not that I will be here for all the winter.
Mike
"p.k." <spam.trap100@btinternet.com> wrote in message
news:dhgmml$h61$1@nwrdmz02.dmz.ncs.ea.ibs-infra.bt.com...
> Froma friend in the energy industry:
>
> I found this on a website at work:
>
>
> pk
>
>
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| Nick G 2005-09-29, 10:21 am |
| Methinks they are predicting a blocking situation with persistent easterlies
bring cold,dry weather to the south of England but milder conditions
elsewhere.
This has been discussed on the uk.sci.weather newsgroup under the thread of
'Winter Forecast'.
________________
Nick G
"p.k." <spam.trap100@btinternet.com> wrote in message
news:dhgmml$h61$1@nwrdmz02.dmz.ncs.ea.ibs-infra.bt.com...
> Froma friend in the energy industry:
>
> I found this on a website at work:
>
>
> pk
>
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"Nick G" <nicholasgardner@nospambtinternet.com> wrote in message
news:dhgo30$48n$1@nwrdmz01.dmz.ncs.ea.ibs-infra.bt.com...
> Methinks they are predicting a blocking situation with persistent
easterlies
> bring cold,dry weather to the south of England but milder conditions
> elsewhere.
>
> This has been discussed on the uk.sci.weather newsgroup under the thread
of
> 'Winter Forecast'.
> ________________
Between early Jan and end of March please :-))
Mike
| |
| Broadback 2005-09-29, 1:21 pm |
| Mike wrote:
> "Nick G" <nicholasgardner@nospambtinternet.com> wrote in message
> news:dhgo30$48n$1@nwrdmz01.dmz.ncs.ea.ibs-infra.bt.com...
>
>
> easterlies
>
>
> of
>
>
>
>
> Between early Jan and end of March please :-))
>
> Mike
>
>
Is that like the warning for the long heatwave forecast for this Summer?
If they cannot get today or tomorrow correct what chance the next few
months?
| |
|
| > >
> Is that like the warning for the long heatwave forecast for this Summer?
> If they cannot get today or tomorrow correct what chance the next few
> months?
No. What I am saying is that if the UK is to have cold and snow and winds
etc, between early January and the end of March please. I won't be here :-))
Jack ;-)
Mike
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| Nick Maclaren 2005-09-29, 1:21 pm |
|
In article <3q2ev8FctrlvU1@individual.net>,
Broadback <wen@towill.plus.com> writes:
|> >
|> Is that like the warning for the long heatwave forecast for this Summer?
Yes.
|> If they cannot get today or tomorrow correct what chance the next few
|> months?
Some meterologists are extremely proud of those forecasts because,
in the past few years, they have started to be more reliable than
listening to the oldest inhabitant of the local pub. Others feel
that the difference in reliability is small.
Regards,
Nick Maclaren.
| |
| shazzbat 2005-09-29, 1:21 pm |
|
"Nick Maclaren" <nmm1@cus.cam.ac.uk> wrote in message
news:dhh1c0$3lr$1@gemini.csx.cam.ac.uk...
>
> In article <3q2ev8FctrlvU1@individual.net>,
> Broadback <wen@towill.plus.com> writes:
> |> >
> |> Is that like the warning for the long heatwave forecast for this
Summer?
>
> Yes.
>
> |> If they cannot get today or tomorrow correct what chance the next few
> |> months?
>
> Some meterologists are extremely proud of those forecasts because,
> in the past few years, they have started to be more reliable than
> listening to the oldest inhabitant of the local pub. Others feel
> that the difference in reliability is small.
>
I read somewhere that if you forecast every day that tomorrows weather would
be the same as todays, you would have a success rate comparable with the
forecasts on TV.
Steve.
| |
| Nick Maclaren 2005-09-29, 1:21 pm |
|
In article <dhh2dv$93d$1@news8.svr.pol.co.uk>,
"shazzbat" <shazzbat@spamlessness.co.uk> writes:
|>
|> I read somewhere that if you forecast every day that tomorrows weather would
|> be the same as todays, you would have a success rate comparable with the
|> forecasts on TV.
It's not been true since the 1960s, in the UK, and the forecasts
have got streets better since the satellites went up. It was
true up until then.
It is still close to true in East Anglia, if you restrict it to
rainfall at a particular point. The total lack of topography
means that most rainfall is random. But, even with that, it is
no longer fair.
I believe that the current correct phrasing is that you can
predict the weather at anything over a month or so ahead just as
well as the forecasts by saying "the same as last year".
Regards,
Nick Maclaren.
| |
|
| In article <dhh2dv$93d$1@news8.svr.pol.co.uk>, shazzbat
<shazzbat@spamlessness.co.uk> writes
>
>
>I read somewhere that if you forecast every day that tomorrows weather would
>be the same as todays, you would have a success rate comparable with the
>forecasts on TV.
>
Not quite. The probability of tomorrow's weather being the same as
today's is in the region of 67%. This means the forecasters have the
challenging task of improving and getting the forecast into the rather
narrow gap between 67% and 100% - ie, don't be too scathing, it's a
difficult task they have there. It's always easy to improve something if
it's really bad to start with, less easy to improve something which is
already rather good.
--
Kay
"Do not insult the crocodile until you have crossed the river"
| |
| Mike Lyle 2005-09-29, 2:21 pm |
| Kay wrote:
> In article <dhh2dv$93d$1@news8.svr.pol.co.uk>, shazzbat
> <shazzbat@spamlessness.co.uk> writes
> Not quite. The probability of tomorrow's weather being the same as
> today's is in the region of 67%. This means the forecasters have
the
> challenging task of improving and getting the forecast into the
rather
> narrow gap between 67% and 100% - ie, don't be too scathing, it's a
> difficult task they have there. It's always easy to improve
something
> if it's really bad to start with, less easy to improve something
> which is already rather good.
What interests me about these discussions is people's expectations.
The daily weather forecasts are indeed pretty good, and even the
weekly ones aren't a waste of time. But the long-range jobs are at
the cutting (or should that be "blunt"?) edge of science: they ought,
perhaps, to be more often and more explicitly presented as the rather
exciting experiment they are. Recent TV brings to my mind the way in
which the Soviets kept quiet about their space efforts till they were
successful, while the Americans -- for equally good reasons --
carried theirs out in front of the world's press.
--
Mike.
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| shazzbat 2005-09-29, 4:21 pm |
|
SNIP
Recent TV brings to my mind the way in
> which the Soviets kept quiet about their space efforts till they were
> successful, while the Americans -- for equally good reasons --
> carried theirs out in front of the world's press.
>
It's good isn't it? what last nights episode brought to mind for me was
being trooped out of my primary school to stand on the corner of the road
and wave as Yuri Gagarin drove by on his visit to Manchester.
I'll never forget that.
Steve
| |
| cineman 2005-09-29, 4:21 pm |
| You mean like predicting that second week or so in september will see high
winds and rain,?
or like 10th to 15th december will see cold snap or like saying second or
third week in february will see very cold snap ? or like saying 10th to
20th july will see hot weather and near cloudless skies for about 3 to 4
days ?
It's easy to [prdict september weather cus warm spell is followed by wet and
windy spell as trails of cloud spin off across the atlantic from tropical
storms hitting USA and following east coast then cross to us. This follows
tropical storm/hurricane season across the pond.
Nevertheless, thanks for warning will bring lilies in containers into
greenhouse for protection.
regards
Cineman
"p.k." <spam.trap100@btinternet.com> wrote in message
news:dhgmml$h61$1@nwrdmz02.dmz.ncs.ea.ibs-infra.bt.com...
> Froma friend in the energy industry:
>
> I found this on a website at work:
>
>
> pk
>
| |
| Mike Lyle 2005-09-29, 4:21 pm |
| shazzbat wrote:
> SNIP
>
> Recent TV brings to my mind the way in
were[color=darkred]
>
> It's good isn't it? what last nights episode brought to mind for me
> was being trooped out of my primary school to stand on the corner
of
> the road and wave as Yuri Gagarin drove by on his visit to
Manchester.
>
> I'll never forget that.
Lucky! (But I did buy his record, and still have it.) One of the rare
cases in which competition really _did_ produce more results than
cooperation would have! (I remember the Express -- I think it was --
had a front-page cartoon of two old biddies gazing with approval: "My
dear, I declare that this Major Gagarin is _quite_ as fascinating as
that Monsieur Bleriot!")
"I aim for ze stars...but sometimes I hit London."
--
Mike.
| |
| Nick Maclaren 2005-09-29, 5:21 pm |
| In article <3q2sjcFcl4a5U1@individual.net>,
Mike Lyle <mike_lyle_uk@REMOVETHISyahoo.co.uk> wrote:
>
>"I aim for ze stars...but sometimes I hit London."
What do you think of Bush's plans to restart the space program,
then? Oops. Sorry, Tony.
Regards,
Nick Maclaren.
| |
| shazzbat 2005-09-29, 5:21 pm |
|
"Mike Lyle" <mike_lyle_uk@REMOVETHISyahoo.co.uk> wrote in message
news:3q2sjcFcl4a5U1@individual.net...
> shazzbat wrote:
> were
> of
> Manchester.
>
> Lucky! (But I did buy his record, and still have it.) One of the rare
> cases in which competition really _did_ produce more results than
> cooperation would have! (I remember the Express -- I think it was --
> had a front-page cartoon of two old biddies gazing with approval: "My
> dear, I declare that this Major Gagarin is _quite_ as fascinating as
> that Monsieur Bleriot!")
>
> "I aim for ze stars...but sometimes I hit London."
>
I liked that line. But tell me about Gagarins record please. I didn't even
know he'd made a record.
Steve
| |
| Bob Hobden 2005-09-29, 6:21 pm |
|
"Nick Maclaren" wrote > |> >
>
> Some meterologists are extremely proud of those forecasts because,
> in the past few years, they have started to be more reliable than
> listening to the oldest inhabitant of the local pub. Others feel
> that the difference in reliability is small.
>
When you think of the computing power they have at their disposal, two new
NEC's to replace their Cray system, then they bloody well should be getting
better.
http://www.metoffice.com/research/n...ical/computers/
--
Regards
Bob
In Runnymede, 17 miles West of London
| |
| Mike Lyle 2005-09-29, 7:21 pm |
| Bob Hobden wrote:
> "Nick Maclaren" wrote > |> >
> When you think of the computing power they have at their disposal,
> two new NEC's to replace their Cray system, then they bloody well
> should be getting better.
> http://www.metoffice.com/research/n...ical/computers/
What? When a butterfly flaps its wing in the Amazon forest..?
--
Mike.
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| Nick Maclaren 2005-09-29, 7:21 pm |
| In article <3q35q2Fd2vlrU1@individual.net>,
Mike Lyle <mike_lyle_uk@REMOVETHISyahoo.co.uk> wrote:
>Bob Hobden wrote:
>
>What? When a butterfly flaps its wing in the Amazon forest..?
Be kind to him. Elementary numerical analysis[*] isn't obvious to
the uninitiated layman :-)
[*] What are now often referred to as chaotic systems were referred
to as numerically unstable ones when they were studied before about
1980. The problem is the same - the approach differs. I am no
expert, but anyone insane enough to ask for a more detailed
explanation is welcome to do so :-)
Regards,
Nick Maclaren.
| |
| Mike Lyle 2005-09-29, 7:21 pm |
| shazzbat wrote:
> "Mike Lyle" <mike_lyle_uk@REMOVETHISyahoo.co.uk> wrote in message
> news:3q2sjcFcl4a5U1@individual.net...
reasons --[color=darkred]
me[color=darkred]
rare[color=darkred]
was --[color=darkred]
"My[color=darkred]
as[color=darkred]
> I liked that line. But tell me about Gagarins record please. I
didn't
> even know he'd made a record.
>
> Steve
"Yuri Gagaryn v Cosmose" was a seven-inch they put out very quickly
with a recording of some of what he said in orbit, and assorted
amiable propaganda messages on the other side. I don't mean he cut a
deal with EMI, like the later embarrassing jobs from Leonard Nimoy
and Captain Kirk. I got mine at Acott's (for you oldies), and was
struck even at the time by the cheapness of the cover, but I was
nonetheless duly impressed.
--
Mike.
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| mike_lincs@yahoo.co.uk 2005-09-30, 7:21 am |
| quote <Methinks they are predicting a blocking situation with
persistent easterlies
bring cold,dry weather to the south of England but milder conditions
elsewhere.
This has been discussed on the uk.sci.weather newsgroup under the
thread of
'Winter Forecast'.
________________
Nick G
>
I don't care! good luck with winter!
Mike
| |
| Bob Hobden 2005-09-30, 9:21 am |
|
"Mike Lyle" wrote after
> Bob Hobden wrote:
>
> What? When a butterfly flaps its wing in the Amazon forest..?
>
Which is picked up by a weather station somewhere and relayed back to the
Met. to be added to all the other data from all the other weather stations
and then analysed using their ever evolving numerical models.
--
Regards
Bob
In Runnymede, 17 miles West of London
| |
| Bob Hobden 2005-09-30, 9:21 am |
|
"Nick Maclaren" wrote
>
> Be kind to him. Elementary numerical analysis[*] isn't obvious to
> the uninitiated layman :-)
>
> [*] What are now often referred to as chaotic systems were referred
> to as numerically unstable ones when they were studied before about
> 1980. The problem is the same - the approach differs. I am no
> expert, but anyone insane enough to ask for a more detailed
> explanation is welcome to do so :-)
>
Quite a good description of "chaotic systems" for the layman on...
http://dept.physics.upenn.edu/cours...ction3_2_5.html
--
Regards
Bob
In Runnymede, 17 miles West of London
| |
| Nick Maclaren 2005-09-30, 3:21 pm |
|
In article <3q4lttF77b1aU1@individual.net>,
"Bob Hobden" <me@privacy.net> writes:
|>
|> > Be kind to him. Elementary numerical analysis[*] isn't obvious to
|> > the uninitiated layman :-)
|> >
|> > [*] What are now often referred to as chaotic systems were referred
|> > to as numerically unstable ones when they were studied before about
|> > 1980. The problem is the same - the approach differs. I am no
|> > expert, but anyone insane enough to ask for a more detailed
|> > explanation is welcome to do so :-)
|>
|> Quite a good description of "chaotic systems" for the layman on...
|> http://dept.physics.upenn.edu/cours...ction3_2_5.html
Er, no. It's ghastly.
What scientists and mathematicians mean by chaos is very much
related to the spirit of the definitions given above. We state
that systems are chaotic if they:
1. are deterministic through description by mathematical rules.
2. have mathematical descriptions which are nonlinear in some way.
. . .
The surefire way to have a system described by an algorithm that
exhibits chaotic behavior is to have it be nonlinear.
This is absolute nonsense. It is possible to have linear systems
that are chaotic (though you have to get fairly abstruse, but it
is easy to have non-linear systems that are not chaotic. For
example:
x'' = -x^3
Ask me for a more accurate explanation, of you feel up to it, but
be warned that even a simplication gets recondite fairly fast.
Regards,
Nick Maclaren.
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