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Home > Archive > UK gardening > September 2006 > Weather forecast It could be cold/hot/wet/dry
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Weather forecast It could be cold/hot/wet/dry
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| Rupert \(W.Yorkshire\) 2006-09-27, 9:25 am |
| Background
Met Office winter forecasting methods are based primarily on the influence
of North Atlantic Ocean temperatures on the European winter climate.
Seasonal trends usually affect quite large geographic areas, so the forecast
for the UK is cast in the broader picture for Europe as a whole.
A statistical method and a number of global forecasting models are used to
provide information on the outlook for Winter 2006/7.
El Niņo conditions - which have widespread weather impacts across the
globe - are now becoming established in the Pacific Ocean. There is evidence
that El Niņo has an effect on European winter climate and this will continue
to be monitored.
Forecast for Winter 2006/7
Temperature
Over much of the European region, the situation is now finely balanced with
approximately even chance that the winter will be colder or warmer than
average.
For the UK, temperatures near the 1971-2000 average are slightly favoured
for the winter season as a whole. However, later in the winter season, there
is a signal for lower temperatures (relative to average) and an increase in
the frequency of cold snaps.
Note that even an average winter is likely to include some notable cold
snaps and snowfalls.
Precipitation
For this winter, wetter-than-average conditions are favoured over central
and southern Europe, although for the UK, there is approximately even chance
of a wetter-or drier-than-average winter.
Last winter saw much drier-than-average conditions across northern Europe
and all parts of the UK - much as last autumn's forecast had suggested. In
the south-east of England this was the continuation of a long period of dry
weather starting in November 2004, continuing through to the summer of 2006.
More about the forecast for Europe
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather...6_7/europe.html
More about the forecast for UK
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather...r2006_7/uk.html
Forecast uncertainties
The current forecast has moved away from our early signal for a mild winter,
and there are signs that the trend towards a colder winter outlook may
continue as emerging signals become established. Further developments in the
situation are therefore expected, as evolution of ocean temperatures in the
North Atlantic takes place.
Updates and reviews of the forecast
It is expected that updates to the forecast will be issued at the beginning
of November (10 a.m. on 1 November), early December and January. A monthly
appraisal of the winter will start in early January 2007. Winter, in this
context, is defined as the months of Dec, Jan and Feb, although it is
recognised that winter weather can extend beyond this period, especially in
northern Britain
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"Rupert (W.Yorkshire)" <reply@newsgroups.com> wrote in message
news:451a710f@212.67.96.135...
> Background
>
> Met Office winter forecasting methods are based primarily on the influence
> of North Atlantic Ocean temperatures on the European winter climate.
> Seasonal trends usually affect quite large geographic areas, so the
> forecast for the UK is cast in the broader picture for Europe as a whole.
>
> A statistical method and a number of global forecasting models are used to
> provide information on the outlook for Winter 2006/7.
>
> El Niņo conditions - which have widespread weather impacts across the
> globe - are now becoming established in the Pacific Ocean. There is
> evidence that El Niņo has an effect on European winter climate and this
> will continue to be monitored.
>
> Forecast for Winter 2006/7
>
> Temperature
>
> Over much of the European region, the situation is now finely balanced
> with approximately even chance that the winter will be colder or warmer
> than average.
>
> For the UK, temperatures near the 1971-2000 average are slightly favoured
> for the winter season as a whole. However, later in the winter season,
> there is a signal for lower temperatures (relative to average) and an
> increase in the frequency of cold snaps.
>
> Note that even an average winter is likely to include some notable cold
> snaps and snowfalls.
>
> Precipitation
>
> For this winter, wetter-than-average conditions are favoured over central
> and southern Europe, although for the UK, there is approximately even
> chance of a wetter-or drier-than-average winter.
>
> Last winter saw much drier-than-average conditions across northern Europe
> and all parts of the UK - much as last autumn's forecast had suggested. In
> the south-east of England this was the continuation of a long period of
> dry weather starting in November 2004, continuing through to the summer of
> 2006.
>
> More about the forecast for Europe
> http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather...6_7/europe.html
>
> More about the forecast for UK
> http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather...r2006_7/uk.html
>
> Forecast uncertainties
>
> The current forecast has moved away from our early signal for a mild
> winter, and there are signs that the trend towards a colder winter outlook
> may continue as emerging signals become established. Further developments
> in the situation are therefore expected, as evolution of ocean
> temperatures in the North Atlantic takes place.
>
> Updates and reviews of the forecast
>
> It is expected that updates to the forecast will be issued at the
> beginning of November (10 a.m. on 1 November), early December and January.
> A monthly appraisal of the winter will start in early January 2007.
> Winter, in this context, is defined as the months of Dec, Jan and Feb,
> although it is recognised that winter weather can extend beyond this
> period, especially in northern Britain
>
In other words, 'We don't know. Your best bet is to look out of the window
for an up to date report in your area' !!!!
Good for a laugh though :-))
Mike
In the Sunny and Cloudy with no rain but looks as if it might Isle of Wight
Ask me tomorrow for a more accurate report on today's weather
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| Uncle Marvo 2006-09-27, 9:25 am |
| In reply to Mike (not@here.thank.you) who wrote this in
V8CdnS1e4s0Q6IfYnZ2dnUVZ8qWdnZ2d@bt.com, I, Marvo, say :
[snip]
> In other words, 'We don't know. Your best bet is to look out of the
> window for an up to date report in your area' !!!!
I looked on the BBC weather site on Friday for an update, as I was cruising
at the weekend. I decided against taking their advice when I noticed that
today, according to the BBC, was Thursday. And the weather forecast turned
out to be complete fiction, too.
The Times is usually worse, however. Looking out of the window seems to be
the best science.
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| Rupert \(W.Yorkshire\) 2006-09-27, 9:25 am |
|
"Mike" <not@here.thank.you> wrote in message
news:V8CdnS1e4s0Q6IfYnZ2dnUVZ8qWdnZ2d@bt.com...
>
> "Rupert (W.Yorkshire)" <reply@newsgroups.com> wrote in message
> news:451a710f@212.67.96.135...
>
> In other words, 'We don't know. Your best bet is to look out of the window
> for an up to date report in your area' !!!!
>
> Good for a laugh though :-))
>
> Mike
> In the Sunny and Cloudy with no rain but looks as if it might Isle of
> Wight
> Ask me tomorrow for a more accurate report on today's weather
The actual post was stolen from UKOasis forum --there are a few humorous
replies
http://www.ukoasis.co.uk/viewtopic....dc2b44fda42e5c4
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| Broadback 2006-09-28, 9:25 am |
| Rupert (W.Yorkshire) wrote:
> "Mike" <not@here.thank.you> wrote in message
> news:V8CdnS1e4s0Q6IfYnZ2dnUVZ8qWdnZ2d@bt.com...
> The actual post was stolen from UKOasis forum --there are a few humorous
> replies
> http://www.ukoasis.co.uk/viewtopic....dc2b44fda42e5c4
>
>
this is the most accurate weather forecast I have heard from the Met Office:
It may rain at times in places.
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| Uncle Marvo 2006-09-28, 9:25 am |
| In reply to Broadback (wen@towill.plus.com) who wrote this in
4o20mdFcgdctU1@individual.net, I, Marvo, say :
> this is the most accurate weather forecast I have heard from the Met
> Office: It may rain at times in places.
Weather forecasters, like doctors and solicitors, are a waste of space IMHO.
They can be as wrong as they like and get away with it. Someone suffers in
any event.
In my 'umble job, if I am wrong I will not be in my job any more, and that
is right and fair.
If I am not sure, I do nothing apart from to say I'm not sure and find out
more until I am sure then do the job.
I bet someone will argue, because they do :-)
I fancy an argument today, but not a serious one, I'm too tired.
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| On 28/9/06 14:28, in article 4o210pFcmnffU1@individual.net, "Uncle Marvo"
<paul.r@deletethisbitfortescue.org.uk> wrote:
> In reply to Broadback (wen@towill.plus.com) who wrote this in
> 4o20mdFcgdctU1@individual.net, I, Marvo, say :
>
>
> Weather forecasters, like doctors and solicitors, are a waste of space IMHO.
>
> They can be as wrong as they like and get away with it. Someone suffers in
> any event.
>
> In my 'umble job, if I am wrong I will not be in my job any more, and that
> is right and fair.
>
> If I am not sure, I do nothing apart from to say I'm not sure and find out
> more until I am sure then do the job.
>
> I bet someone will argue, because they do :-)
>
> I fancy an argument today, but not a serious one, I'm too tired.
>
To be fair, forecasting is a matter of interpretation as well as scientific
information, so it moves more into the 'art of', IMO. We consistently read
of how the west country is shrouded with rain and fog as we look out at a
blazing hot day and it makes us as mad as anyone else, I assure you. It
reminds me of the story of an earlier Lord Home who looked at the barometer
stuck firmly on 'Fair' and opened the window, chucking it out into the
hurtling rain saying "See for yourself you bloody thing"!
I do hope nobody is thinking that matters have deteriorated since the Met
office moved to Exeter! http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/
I happen to know we have a past weather forecaster who posts here sometimes
so let's be nice..... ;-)
--
Sacha
www.hillhousenursery.co.uk
South Devon
http://www.discoverdartmoor.co.uk/
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| Uncle Marvo 2006-09-28, 9:25 am |
| In reply to Sacha (sacha@privacy.net) who wrote this in
C1419037.3A1BA%sacha@privacy.net, I, Marvo, say :
> On 28/9/06 14:28, in article 4o210pFcmnffU1@individual.net, "Uncle
> Marvo" <paul.r@deletethisbitfortescue.org.uk> wrote:
>
> To be fair, forecasting is a matter of interpretation as well as
> scientific information, so it moves more into the 'art of', IMO. We
> consistently read of how the west country is shrouded with rain and
> fog as we look out at a blazing hot day and it makes us as mad as
> anyone else, I assure you. It reminds me of the story of an earlier
> Lord Home who looked at the barometer stuck firmly on 'Fair' and
> opened the window, chucking it out into the hurtling rain saying "See
> for yourself you bloody thing"!
> I do hope nobody is thinking that matters have deteriorated since the
> Met office moved to Exeter! http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/
> I happen to know we have a past weather forecaster who posts here
> sometimes so let's be nice..... ;-)
I have a fir cone ... it's more right than wrong.
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| Rupert \(W.Yorkshire\) 2006-09-28, 5:25 pm |
|
"Uncle Marvo" <paul.r@deletethisbitfortescue.org.uk> wrote in message
news:4o22t8Fcd0orU1@individual.net...
> In reply to Sacha (sacha@privacy.net) who wrote this in
> C1419037.3A1BA%sacha@privacy.net, I, Marvo, say :
>
>
> I have a fir cone ... it's more right than wrong.
>
>
And I have a broken barometer which is stuck on "Change". It is deadly
accurate many times each year.
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"Rupert (W.Yorkshire)" <reply@newsgroups.com> wrote in message
news:451c18ee@212.67.96.135...
>
> And I have a broken barometer which is stuck on "Change". It is deadly
> accurate many times each year.
>
Like a clock I have which is broken. Right twice in 24 hours, but another
which is slow is NEVER right ;-))
Mike
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| Rupert \(W.Yorkshire\) 2006-09-28, 5:25 pm |
|
"Mike" <not@here.thank.you> wrote in message
news:zpKdnebwp-w0gIHYnZ2dnUVZ8s-dnZ2d@bt.com...
>
> "Rupert (W.Yorkshire)" <reply@newsgroups.com> wrote in message
> news:451c18ee@212.67.96.135...
>
> Like a clock I have which is broken. Right twice in 24 hours, but another
> which is slow is NEVER right ;-))
>
> Mike
>
>
Never say Never. That clock will be accurate (briefly) eventually.
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